geime
0xd5fe247c00309838c60c0a0df538e117d8ee95da
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $59.2k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $562.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.895 | $393.35 | +$173.60 |
| Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.065 | $123.27 | −$24.78 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.500 | 0.105 | $46.15 | −$173.60 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.815 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$493.86 |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$118.42 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.50 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.136 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$364.44at 0.740US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$179.10at 0.888Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$124.25at 0.940Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March?
- +$121.04at 0.736Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$73.76at 0.875Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-22 00:37 | Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.0780652781 | $148.05 |
| 07-08 06:22 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.815 | $493.86 |
| 07-05 18:17 | Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.003 | $13.50 |
| 06-18 01:38 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8719999998 | $515.97 |
| 06-18 01:34 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 01:31 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1357066804 | $63.22 |
| 06-17 06:51 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.102 | $118.42 |
| 05-22 11:18 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? | BUY | 0.972 | $496.14 |
| 05-21 22:06 | Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.73 | $334.57 |
| 04-10 06:56 | Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.9444577014 | $534.84 |
| 04-10 06:50 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.79 | $534.70 |
| 04-04 16:41 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.8599999998 | $2.1k |
| 03-20 02:55 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.8214199674 | $330.29 |
| 03-19 14:23 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.7379971065 | $290.76 |
| 03-11 13:49 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? | BUY | 0.94 | $442.53 |