emerge1
0xd5f2718fa2fbd608c2125684a147eec23f8529fe
- Realised P&L
- $-5.21
- Volume
- $217.37
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $67.06
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 5? · Yes | 0.310 | 1.000 | $53.07 | +$36.61 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 5? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.998 | $13.99 | +$7.68 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 4? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$99.99at 0.258Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 5?
- +$-0.00at 0.993Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$-0.09at 0.542Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 00:00 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.449999975 | $6.31 |
| 10-04 18:00 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.3099999953 | $16.46 |
| 10-04 13:00 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.2482305314 | $33.43 |
| 10-03 18:00 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.5099999776 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 15:34 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 3? | SELL | 0.51 | $0.96 |
| 10-02 15:18 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:45 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $0.99 |
| 10-02 14:44 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.9929993546 | $1.00 |