urkone
0xd5f1ecfebe99d1fcf85c284b497cf57cb33d38b4
- Realised P&L
- $-16.26
- Volume
- $149.7k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $610.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.936 | 0.963 | $245.44 | +$6.76 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.945 | $189.00 | +$17.00 |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.789 | 0.775 | $125.13 | −$2.16 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No | 0.947 | 0.983 | $51.09 | +$1.85 |
| Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.50 |
| Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.79 |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.71at 0.006Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$17.42at 0.004Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- +$13.84at 0.880Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$13.42at 0.890Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million?
- +$13.41at 0.885Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 02:41 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.7888593121 | $127.28 |
| 06-13 12:10 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $43.30 |
| 06-13 12:10 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.995 | $109.45 |
| 06-13 12:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.979 | $107.69 |
| 06-13 12:08 | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $50.85 |
| 06-13 12:08 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.947 | $49.24 |
| 05-22 13:54 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.936 | $238.68 |
| 05-22 13:53 | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | BUY | 0.984 | $50.18 |
| 05-22 13:52 | Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $69.73 |
| 04-14 08:42 | Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $39.52 |
| 03-26 13:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.953 | $104.83 |
| 03-26 13:12 | Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.0025042792 | $20.68 |
| 03-26 13:12 | Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $118.40 |
| 02-27 13:59 | Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.002 | $13.79 |
| 02-27 13:58 | Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $0.34 |