WSBLBAVP
0xd5e6ea6cc42d65d4dd6bf553dcff7336ab188677
- Realised P&L
- $89.94
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $261.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election? · Yes | 0.495 | 0.570 | $201.88 | +$26.66 |
| Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? · Yes | 0.144 | 0.260 | $59.82 | +$26.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$50.50at 0.550Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
- +$50.34at 0.288Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?
- +$0.58at 0.952Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
- +$0.46at 0.964US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?
- +$-11.94at 0.253Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 21:55 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? | BUY | 0.1563322392 | $10.95 |
| 10-12 21:53 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? | BUY | 0.13875 | $22.20 |
| 10-12 21:52 | Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $22.66 |
| 10-09 22:07 | Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5749293286 | $68.03 |
| 10-07 00:34 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | BUY | 0.964 | $12.24 |
| 09-30 19:36 | Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | BUY | 0.2433106453 | $32.43 |
| 09-29 22:31 | Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.95 | $11.39 |
| 09-29 22:29 | Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election? | BUY | 0.46 | $48.76 |
| 09-29 22:29 | Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 09-29 22:29 | Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election? | BUY | 0.45 | $3.00 |
| 09-29 22:28 | Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election? | BUY | 0.45 | $53.19 |
| 09-29 21:34 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9445445313 | $120.90 |
| 09-28 14:27 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $5.50 |
| 08-23 21:20 | Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election? | BUY | 0.2799999926 | $19.80 |