qkrqkrtjr
0xd5d48118b5859bfb2753768f9a3caef56c63a195
- Realised P&L
- $69.16
- Volume
- $52.2k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $7.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.760 | $5.32 | +$0.07 |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.545 | 0.061 | $2.57 | −$20.43 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on November 20? · Up | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.348 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.09 |
| Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.886 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or more? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? · No | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$92.16at 0.980Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?
- +$53.77at 0.481Yoon arrested by January 31?
- +$8.11at 0.900Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
- +$8.00at 0.900Yoon arrested by Friday?
- +$6.90at 0.310Arkansas vs. Memphis
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 10:34 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $6.73 |
| 06-21 10:33 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $9.97 |
| 05-13 08:53 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? | BUY | 0.998999901 | $10.00 |
| 02-18 13:40 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 18? | BUY | 0.999000001 | $4.00 |
| 01-01 05:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 01-01 05:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 1? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.00 |
| 01-01 05:01 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 1? | BUY | 0.9979996747 | $3.00 |
| 01-01 05:01 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.00 |
| 11-27 14:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? | BUY | 0.9959997304 | $3.00 |
| 11-27 14:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 11-27 14:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.00 |
| 11-27 14:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |
| 11-26 14:56 | Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on November 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.00 |
| 11-26 14:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.00 |
| 11-26 14:56 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.00 |