tsybka
0xd5ccdf772f795547e299de57f47966e24de8dea4
- Realised P&L
- $321.6k
- Volume
- $42.91M
- Markets traded
- 845
- Open portfolio
- $44.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded845
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.712 | 0.599 | $44.8k | −$8.4k |
| Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.075 | $126.51 | −$169.47 |
| Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.345 | $1.47 | −$0.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.1kat 0.019Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- +$18.1kat 0.152Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
- +$16.9kat 0.886Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- +$16.7kat 0.999Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
- +$13.8kat 0.917Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 15:33 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | SELL | 0.0608091352 | $89.65 |
| 09-18 15:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.953 | $7.7k |
| 09-17 07:21 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.59 |
| 09-16 22:46 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.21 | $10.71 |
| 09-16 21:42 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | SELL | 0.2215026873 | $338.35 |
| 09-15 20:39 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.192173727 | $233.49 |
| 09-15 14:45 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.206566931 | $120.33 |
| 09-15 14:05 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.2172104441 | $77.87 |
| 09-15 11:20 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.1700067546 | $135.91 |
| 09-15 09:31 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.1412640726 | $126.48 |
| 09-15 06:51 | Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4723037007 | $138.35 |
| 09-14 17:52 | Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $36.36 |
| 09-14 17:51 | Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5642857143 | $197.50 |
| 09-14 15:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5977738778 | $2.1k |
| 09-13 14:06 | Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4584634916 | $326.82 |