negar
0xd5a643204bbf5bc36438565ea52fde8d9b4c6991
- Realised P&L
- $-24.4k
- Volume
- $1.82M
- Markets traded
- 2,153
- Open portfolio
- $41.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,153
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration43.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 15? · No | 0.047 | 0.021 | $21.32 | −$26.39 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 19? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.006 | $20.56 | −$153.15 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 12? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$92.29 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 14? · No | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 14? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.89 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 14? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$92.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.2kat 0.390Rockies vs. Nationals
- +$3.1kat 0.367Orioles vs. Yankees
- +$2.4kat 0.249Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25?
- +$2.0kat 0.650Rockies vs. Nationals
- +$2.0kat 0.140Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on June 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 03:05 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 15? | BUY | 0.047 | $47.71 |
| 10-14 15:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 14? | BUY | 0.062848087 | $92.91 |
| 10-13 17:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 14? | BUY | 0.0075997568 | $34.89 |
| 10-13 17:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 14? | BUY | 0.0282064176 | $60.00 |
| 10-13 02:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 12? | BUY | 0.0127047804 | $4.59 |
| 10-12 23:15 | Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 12? | BUY | 0.1531861771 | $87.70 |
| 10-12 23:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 12? | SELL | 0.999 | $93.82 |
| 10-12 21:46 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 12? | BUY | 0.3499999989 | $32.87 |
| 10-12 21:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 13? | SELL | 0.015 | $36.31 |
| 10-12 20:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 13? | BUY | 0.0191945475 | $46.46 |
| 10-12 20:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 12? | SELL | 0.0158030232 | $16.75 |
| 10-12 20:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 13? | SELL | 0.0117115737 | $33.99 |
| 10-12 19:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 19? | BUY | 0.055 | $171.31 |
| 10-12 19:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 19? | BUY | 0.0498007044 | $2.40 |
| 10-12 17:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 12? | BUY | 0.0943553883 | $100.00 |