UncleBrave
0xd5a17356cb67f28ae462859e3a55866d39297fbe
- Realised P&L
- $-310.91
- Volume
- $19.3k
- Markets traded
- 203
- Open portfolio
- $30.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded203
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.875 | $17.50 | +$7.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 16? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.255 | $12.75 | +$2.25 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 15? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$157.13at 0.374Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15?
- +$107.36at 0.493Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?
- +$76.86at 0.146Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 14?
- +$73.01at 0.298Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29?
- +$65.06at 0.542Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 04:15 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 14? | SELL | 0.67263 | $13.45 |
| 07-31 00:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 07-18 07:45 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 18? | SELL | 0.09 | $3.03 |
| 07-18 07:44 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 18? | SELL | 0.0020798193 | $0.37 |
| 07-18 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 18? | BUY | 0.31 | $7.34 |
| 07-18 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 18? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.10 |
| 07-18 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 18? | BUY | 0.0537634997 | $1.57 |
| 07-18 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 18? | BUY | 0.05 | $3.61 |
| 07-15 01:55 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15? | BUY | 0.37 | $11.10 |
| 07-15 01:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15? | BUY | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 07-15 01:53 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 15? | BUY | 0.3504347826 | $40.30 |
| 07-09 22:37 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.5949999762 | $5.00 |
| 07-08 22:47 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 9? | BUY | 0.319 | $2.55 |
| 07-08 22:47 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 9? | BUY | 0.319 | $2.55 |
| 07-08 22:46 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 9? | BUY | 0.32 | $4.43 |