0xd55b1a61c4a16d6e085b8f1cc165e9869056a3e6
0xd55b1a61c4a16d6e085b8f1cc165e9869056a3e6
- Realised P&L
- $-8.54
- Volume
- $228.93
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $2.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? · Yes | 0.720 | 1.000 | $1.39 | +$0.39 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October? · No | 0.790 | 0.815 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.00at 0.339SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 14?
- +$1.86at 0.379Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.71at 0.430Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 03:08 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 23:23 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 14:26 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 06:25 | Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%? | BUY | 0.3009999217 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 22:23 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 13:40 | Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 05:38 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-23 20:57 | Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-23 12:51 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-23 04:50 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 20:18 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 12:16 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 01:20 | Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 48% to 50%? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-21 16:43 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.2759999547 | $1.00 |
| 10-21 08:42 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |