Nathaniaho
0xd54dac1e826467bfb1113e139eb72a0706449fd6
- Realised P&L
- $-18.89
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $6.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)15.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 20? · No | 0.996 | 0.997 | $6.01 | +$0.01 |
| Cavaliers vs. Hornets · Hornets | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.71at 0.749Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 20-26?
- +$0.01at 0.999Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 29?
- +$0.00at 0.986Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.00at 0.991Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$0.00at 0.992Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 09:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 20? | BUY | 0.996 | $6.00 |
| 04-29 06:00 | Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.41 |
| 04-23 05:23 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 20-26? | BUY | 0.997 | $7.35 |
| 04-23 05:18 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $5.39 |
| 03-23 07:51 | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.991 | $5.40 |
| 01-22 08:10 | Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? | SELL | 0.992 | $346.95 |
| 01-22 05:36 | Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? | BUY | 0.995 | $348.01 |
| 01-22 05:32 | Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.996 | $319.13 |
| 01-22 02:40 | Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.9979999989 | $319.77 |
| 01-21 08:04 | Cavaliers vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.4299999887 | $9.15 |
| 01-21 07:55 | Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | SELL | 0.9894737089 | $316.32 |
| 01-21 05:20 | Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | BUY | 0.997 | $318.74 |
| 01-21 05:18 | Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.989 | $363.29 |
| 01-21 01:57 | Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.991 | $364.03 |
| 01-20 08:38 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $353.79 |