flowfever
0xd534dd82985da702d13e601fcc6421e5a6525fd9
- Realised P&L
- $-182.70
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $208.92
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.717 | 0.785 | $96.37 | +$8.37 |
| Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 23, 2026? · No | 0.652 | 0.740 | $47.67 | +$5.67 |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · No | 0.652 | 0.371 | $39.46 | −$29.86 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.815 | 0.205 | $25.42 | −$75.66 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$135.00 |
| Will Russia join the Board of Peace? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$155.00 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$89.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$126.00at 0.370US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?
- +$76.11at 0.623Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
- +$61.65at 0.700Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
- +$37.91at 0.629Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?
- +$-10.24at 0.126Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 10:07 | Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.6519668211 | $42.00 |
| 09-14 10:06 | Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7168393883 | $88.00 |
| 08-24 01:51 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.37 | $74.00 |
| 07-30 05:45 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.815043458 | $101.08 |
| 06-30 15:27 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6? | BUY | 0.6125850102 | $62.63 |
| 06-30 15:26 | Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | SELL | 0.618 | $43.26 |
| 06-30 15:24 | Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | SELL | 0.04050525 | $4.86 |
| 06-04 13:21 | Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | BUY | 0.6699999994 | $135.00 |
| 05-16 14:26 | Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.6525853685 | $115.00 |
| 04-18 14:44 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | BUY | 0.6234326803 | $126.00 |
| 03-15 18:49 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $143.85 |
| 01-23 07:21 | Will Russia join the Board of Peace? | BUY | 0.4799999994 | $155.00 |