0xd52ef5565367e81f46001206fa0259ba8b43852c
- Realised P&L
- $-1.62
- Volume
- $108.14
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $8.62
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration10.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats? · No | 0.800 | 0.998 | $2.63 | +$0.52 |
| Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? · Yes | 0.780 | 1.000 | $2.17 | +$0.48 |
| Will Warsh say "Task Force" 10+ times during September Press Conference? · No | 0.730 | 0.715 | $1.26 | −$0.03 |
| Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.325 | $1.05 | −$0.02 |
| Will Warsh say "Luck" or "Lucky" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.370 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Warsh say "Echo" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.740 | 0.465 | $0.63 | −$0.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.45at 0.250Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC rally?
- +$5.35at 0.260Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?
- +$5.00at 0.308Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
- +$5.00at 0.308Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 Rally?
- +$4.71at 0.300Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during events with Rutte?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 15:41 | Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.229999933 | $2.06 |
| 05-05 15:36 | Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.3099998956 | $2.02 |
| 04-27 10:05 | Will Trump say "Elizabeth" during King Charles visit? | BUY | 0.4699999317 | $2.34 |
| 04-24 09:36 | Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? | BUY | 0.2960950612 | $1.76 |
| 04-22 08:24 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 20 - 26) | BUY | 0.4599999719 | $2.19 |
| 04-21 00:38 | Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2399998782 | $1.24 |
| 04-19 08:10 | Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.34 | $1.70 |
| 04-18 10:55 | Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 on April 20? | BUY | 0.3899999106 | $2.28 |
| 04-18 10:50 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on April 20? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.25 |
| 04-17 19:06 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on April 17? | BUY | 0.3799999339 | $2.19 |
| 04-13 08:26 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 04-12 15:41 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2146121866 | $2.39 |
| 04-10 13:00 | Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC rally? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.15 |
| 04-07 13:27 | Will Trump say "Greenland" during events with Rutte? | BUY | 0.4599999719 | $2.29 |
| 04-07 13:19 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during events with Rutte? | BUY | 0.2999999109 | $2.02 |