only-no
0xd5203cee3604d7fe99d988d762302670ea5b3040
- Realised P&L
- $-50.74
- Volume
- $44.1k
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $3.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.498Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
- +$274.32at 0.376Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$190.77at 0.904Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
- +$140.00at 0.720Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$113.09at 0.898Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 18:11 | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia? | BUY | 0.939634 | $469.82 |
| 10-08 17:40 | Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%? | BUY | 0.855953 | $171.19 |
| 10-08 17:19 | Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%? | BUY | 0.81649 | $326.60 |
| 10-08 16:31 | Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.82 | $79.93 |
| 10-08 16:31 | Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 15%-20%? | BUY | 0.7964798599 | $45.48 |
| 10-06 03:17 | Will Remo be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A? | BUY | 0.9 | $144.00 |
| 10-05 17:01 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.969 | $48.25 |
| 10-05 16:59 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.96896375 | $2.3k |
| 10-05 16:57 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.960922031 | $66.43 |
| 10-05 16:55 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | BUY | 0.95992505 | $191.99 |
| 10-05 02:31 | Will Marina JHC win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election? | BUY | 0.98 | $19.60 |
| 10-05 02:29 | Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election? | BUY | 0.98 | $31.36 |
| 10-05 02:15 | Will Teresa Surita win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election? | BUY | 0.9776923077 | $25.42 |
| 10-05 02:09 | Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? | BUY | 0.979512336 | $18.66 |
| 10-05 02:07 | Will Lahesio Bonfim win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election? | BUY | 0.98 | $27.91 |