0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 862
- Open portfolio
- $230.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded862
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)6.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.024 | $133.33 | +$33.33 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.018 | $97.22 | −$402.78 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.9k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? · No | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.1k |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$800.00 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$558.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$347.3kat 0.019US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$50.6kat 0.086US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$44.7kat 0.036Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$32.1kat 0.084Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
- +$17.6kat 0.006Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 06:04 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.007 | $32.30 |
| 10-29 05:28 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.008 | $2.79 |
| 10-29 05:28 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.0070005443 | $49.00 |
| 10-29 05:26 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.008 | $3.04 |
| 10-29 05:24 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.0080686957 | $37.12 |
| 10-28 05:55 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.044 | $886.58 |
| 10-28 05:53 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.049 | $7.60 |
| 10-28 05:53 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.049 | $7.60 |
| 10-28 02:07 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.016 | $96.00 |
| 10-28 02:07 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.017 | $68.00 |
| 10-27 12:25 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.25 | $750.00 |
| 10-27 10:23 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.28 | $70.05 |
| 10-22 13:16 | Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $114.03 |
| 10-20 07:07 | Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $0.80 |
| 10-20 07:03 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.18 | $72.09 |