0xd4e8d48486808c84515a22d2d9e2ef096f26baac
- Realised P&L
- $-81.00
- Volume
- $28.4k
- Markets traded
- 402
- Open portfolio
- $191.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded402
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$144.95at 0.501US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$26.12at 0.993MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$21.02at 0.322Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$18.96at 0.569Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$18.06at 0.306Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 04:00 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 22:45 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.99799901 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 13:50 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? | BUY | 0.4319999067 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 13:50 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%? | BUY | 0.1929998498 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 13:50 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%? | BUY | 0.2109998555 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 13:50 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? | BUY | 0.7599993312 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 13:49 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? | BUY | 0.8699992344 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 12:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.2 | $11.30 |
| 08-03 11:14 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:03 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:03 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:02 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:01 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:01 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:01 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |