valor0uss
0xd4e2c6303b07d0c8e84ce39546285698697f7bea
- Realised P&L
- $572.17
- Volume
- $116.5k
- Markets traded
- 173
- Open portfolio
- $145.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded173
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.485 | $145.50 | −$34.50 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 12? · No | 0.738 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$76.67 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 28? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump say "Biden's war" during conference with Putin on August 15? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$124.99at 0.869Will Opensea launch a token by December 31?
- +$101.70at 0.440Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$90.00at 0.450Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$89.09at 0.584Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$87.39at 0.970Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 17:17 | Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $214.78 |
| 06-29 15:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? | BUY | 0.989 | $99.00 |
| 06-28 14:07 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.00 |
| 06-28 13:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | SELL | 0.25 | $2.71 |
| 06-28 13:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | BUY | 0.4607842993 | $5.00 |
| 03-12 21:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 12? | BUY | 0.9744223933 | $101.19 |
| 02-12 16:38 | Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9935201343 | $100.56 |
| 02-10 22:47 | Superform FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.46 |
| 12-30 09:48 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.95 | $244.59 |
| 12-28 09:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 28? | BUY | 0.9986238542 | $244.25 |
| 12-14 14:00 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 9-15? | BUY | 0.998 | $212.03 |
| 12-12 17:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down on December 12? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.98 |
| 12-12 16:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down on December 12? | BUY | 0.4836162608 | $50.00 |
| 12-12 15:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down on December 12? | BUY | 0.4467883952 | $100.00 |
| 12-11 12:22 | Will Almanak FDV above $140M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.943250233 | $200.00 |