0xd4d93f117b1e17933ca54a6b29ac33a471151b46
0xd4d93f117b1e17933ca54a6b29ac33a471151b46
- Realised P&L
- $12.08
- Volume
- $243.56
- Markets traded
- 111
- Open portfolio
- $8.67
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded111
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.821 | $1.49 | +$0.49 |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.4B? · No | 0.720 | 0.895 | $1.24 | +$0.24 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.835 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B? · No | 0.660 | 0.720 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? · No | 0.400 | 0.430 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.425 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.375 | $0.83 | −$0.17 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.620 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $59 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$2.97at 0.258Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of September 14 2026?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Trump say "Nuclear" during remarks at NASA?
- +$2.82at 0.268Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.67at 0.278Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 Week of September 28 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 22:37 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:29 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 04:37 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.4B? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:53 | Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 06:46 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:27 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 06:01 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 21:57 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $167.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 09:55 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 01:17 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 17:16 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $182.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 04:23 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 10? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:14 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $59 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:14 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $59 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 12:11 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |