csv26
0xd4aa7a88705c1b342716ff67ce8760b11d4b8fcc
- Realised P&L
- $145.35
- Volume
- $84.4k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)15.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.230 | $2.5k | −$651.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$309.59at 0.490US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$104.09at 0.730Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
- +$-1.01at 0.070Will Starmer say "Andrew" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
- +$-10.00at 0.001US strikes Iraq by March 7?
- +$-10.00at 0.008Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 03:14 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2590186629 | $523.51 |
| 07-14 16:22 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.2883118491 | $2.5k |
| 07-03 17:24 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.296863765 | $600.00 |
| 06-19 01:16 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.4941550715 | $3.2k |
| 04-13 13:15 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.3470681066 | $81.10 |
| 04-13 13:15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | SELL | 0.011 | $25.51 |
| 04-08 01:06 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | BUY | 0.0232857234 | $54.00 |
| 04-08 00:54 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.3649754555 | $500.00 |
| 04-08 00:52 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL | 0.995 | $609.59 |
| 04-02 13:36 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $191.12 |
| 03-24 06:03 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | BUY | 0.0081268438 | $10.00 |
| 03-24 03:39 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.3499999997 | $500.00 |
| 03-24 03:38 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | SELL | 0.8819769903 | $604.09 |
| 03-18 11:24 | Will Starmer say "Andrew" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.35 |
| 03-18 02:38 | Karoline Leavitt out by March 31? | BUY | 0.0410853316 | $10.00 |