PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xD49eF90a4580907037A43BCd31a02AE155E24FF0-1781340266224

0xd49ef90a4580907037a43bcd31a02ae155e24ff0

Realised P&L
$-384.80
Volume
$25.3k
Markets traded
196
Open portfolio
$23.52

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded196
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration39.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Elon post "Mexico" on X this week? · Yes0.1720.160$9.31−$0.69
Will Trump say "Border" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? · Yes0.3150.315$4.99−$0.01
Will Trump say "Bitcoin", "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? · Yes0.0400.034$4.25−$0.75
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" this week? · Yes0.1610.100$3.11−$1.89
Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination? · Yes0.0500.060$1.13+$0.19
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 5, 2026? · No0.1000.105$0.64+$0.03
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Playoffs · BESTIA Academy0.0630.001$0.09−$11.09
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? · Yes0.1190.000$0.00−$5.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET · Down0.7040.000$0.00−$75.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET · Down0.0800.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00−$11.50
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET · Down0.1000.000$0.00−$4.00
XRP Up or Down - July 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET · Up0.0680.000$0.00−$11.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET · Up0.2000.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? · Yes0.4200.000$0.00−$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-03 21:06Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ETBUY0.09$1.80
10-03 20:57Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ETBUY0.0034894541$1.00
10-03 20:48Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 5, 2026?BUY0.1$0.61
10-03 20:47Will Tom Holland receive an Oscar nomination?BUY0.05$0.94
10-03 20:17Counter-Strike: Galorys vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 PlayoffsBUY0.059$1.18
10-03 20:17Counter-Strike: Galorys vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 PlayoffsBUY0.0640553438$10.00
10-03 20:10Will Elon post "Mexico" on X this week?BUY0.2368732653$5.00
10-03 20:09Will Elon post "Mexico" on X this week?BUY0.1348665502$5.00
10-03 20:08Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" this week?BUY0.161016947$5.00
10-03 20:08Will Trump say "Bitcoin", "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?BUY0.04$5.00
10-03 20:07Will Trump say "Border" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?BUY0.3154325369$5.00
10-03 19:59Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Seeding MatchesBUY0.001$1.10
10-03 19:58Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Seeding MatchesBUY0.0083948682$2.77
10-03 19:57Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Seeding MatchesBUY0.01$0.40
10-03 19:56Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Seeding MatchesBUY0.03$1.80