NotSomeGambler
0xd4846896594fab4b40bbda95143ecb68b5e07055
- Realised P&L
- $-258.46
- Volume
- $18.8k
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $0.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17? · No | 0.878 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$203.84 |
| Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on August 16? · No | 0.794 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$301.70 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET · Down | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.60at 0.881Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 12?
- +$42.82at 0.750France vs. England: Team to Win
- +$34.07at 0.877Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 July 20-26?
- +$30.26at 0.914Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 6?
- +$27.27at 0.639Cavaliers vs. Hornets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 11:08 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $61.09 |
| 09-18 07:09 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $63.84 |
| 09-17 22:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on September 17? | BUY | 0.974616329 | $63.51 |
| 09-17 22:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 18? | SELL | 0.998 | $63.57 |
| 09-16 19:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.988 | $62.94 |
| 09-16 11:50 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $63.08 |
| 09-13 22:33 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $60.93 |
| 09-13 03:26 | North Dakota vs. Portland State | BUY | 0.965 | $20.27 |
| 09-13 03:24 | North Dakota vs. Portland State | BUY | 0.973 | $38.92 |
| 09-13 00:33 | Buffalo vs. Florida International | BUY | 0.98 | $38.22 |
| 09-13 00:27 | San Diego vs. Idaho State | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 09-12 22:42 | UCF vs. Pittsburgh | BUY | 0.9399999995 | $35.00 |
| 08-24 19:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 24? | BUY | 0.922 | $4.61 |
| 08-24 19:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 24? | BUY | 0.92 | $18.40 |
| 08-24 19:04 | Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 24? | BUY | 0.8902630195 | $16.92 |