0xd4724b6dde87a98c0b717899fd6993d8ce057009
0xd4724b6dde87a98c0b717899fd6993d8ce057009
- Realised P&L
- $-4.72
- Volume
- $147.76
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $11.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.780 | $2.29 | +$1.29 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? · No | 0.540 | 0.925 | $1.71 | +$0.71 |
| Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.700 | 1.000 | $1.43 | +$0.43 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? · No | 0.230 | 0.305 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 15? · No | 0.410 | 0.500 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.695 | $1.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $517.50 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.735 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.450 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.595 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.32at 0.237SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$2.67at 0.278Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.00at 0.339SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 14?
- +$1.68at 0.379S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 05:03 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 21:02 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $517.50 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 12:26 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 04:25 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 20:25 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 12:06 | Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 00:14 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 16:09 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 04:20 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 13:02 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:39 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 14:08 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 05:12 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 09:10 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 14? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 09:06 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 14? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |