0xd45958e02d9cb1019fc96fc9e86ba27920b613f9
0xd45958e02d9cb1019fc96fc9e86ba27920b613f9
- Realised P&L
- $-10.5k
- Volume
- $1.20M
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.295 | $3.2k | −$908.20 |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.658 | 0.180 | $91.60 | −$243.17 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.724 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.0k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET · Down | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.2kat 0.841Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$3.5kat 0.930No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$3.4kat 0.921Will Trump visit China by May 15?
- +$1.8kat 0.700Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$1.5kat 0.800Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 19:57 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $2.05 |
| 10-10 14:15 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.37 | $6.1k |
| 10-10 14:15 | Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.1434933333 | $43.05 |
| 10-02 18:07 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $911.84 |
| 09-15 18:36 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $250.88 |
| 09-15 18:10 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.1439509055 | $601.90 |
| 08-19 16:48 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.2391588305 | $2.0k |
| 08-19 16:43 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.49 | $3.0k |
| 08-14 12:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET | BUY | 0.8299999973 | $25.00 |
| 08-14 12:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | SELL | 0.94 | $26.87 |
| 08-14 12:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.3399999633 | $5.00 |
| 08-14 12:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET | BUY | 0.359999977 | $5.00 |
| 07-08 13:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | BUY | 0.2799999928 | $25.00 |
| 07-08 13:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | SELL | 0.1409599584 | $27.11 |
| 07-08 13:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | BUY | 0.1299999957 | $25.00 |