cactusnoodle
0xd4546eae9de29b025922207b283ce216b09dd749
- Realised P&L
- $169.13
- Volume
- $132.3k
- Markets traded
- 1,281
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,281
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration12.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20? · Yes | 0.958 | 1.000 | $962.69 | +$40.19 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20? · Yes | 0.993 | 1.000 | $812.59 | +$5.58 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 20? · No | 0.994 | 1.000 | $709.64 | +$3.57 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 21? · Yes | 0.978 | 0.973 | $296.76 | −$1.52 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 21? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $39.98 | +$0.02 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 21? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $39.98 | +$0.02 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 20? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $39.98 | +$0.02 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 20? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $39.98 | +$0.02 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 20? · No | 0.940 | 1.000 | $36.98 | +$2.20 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 20? · No | 0.510 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$25.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$90.15at 0.242Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 28?
- +$83.16at 0.871Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26?
- +$76.84at 0.893France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance
- +$67.36at 0.942Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?
- +$62.58at 0.467Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 14:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 21? | BUY | 0.978 | $298.29 |
| 10-20 14:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $39.96 |
| 10-20 13:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 10-20 13:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.9609999999 | $140.89 |
| 10-20 11:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.9509999998 | $86.13 |
| 10-20 11:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.9609999998 | $173.34 |
| 10-20 06:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.997 | $239.28 |
| 10-20 05:46 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.996 | $229.08 |
| 10-20 05:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.995 | $202.98 |
| 10-20 05:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.972 | $155.52 |
| 10-20 04:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.993 | $178.74 |
| 10-20 04:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.992 | $396.80 |
| 10-20 04:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.969 | $174.96 |
| 10-20 04:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.99 | $131.67 |
| 10-20 04:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.9686346364 | $174.42 |