Exertoh
0xd427a22958dae8ba8bb05ea4e42778343c3605ad
- Realised P&L
- $7.9k
- Volume
- $1.19M
- Markets traded
- 599
- Open portfolio
- $0.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded599
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.001 | $0.49 | −$10.54 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$0.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$794.52at 0.020Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?
- +$554.83at 0.073Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?
- +$420.87at 0.029Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
- +$372.18at 0.404Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?
- +$356.84at 0.014Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 06:43 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $16.44 |
| 09-19 13:26 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.01541411 | $15.41 |
| 09-17 19:33 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $21.75 |
| 09-01 15:30 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.002793738 | $3.41 |
| 08-28 01:39 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $3.36 |
| 08-28 01:00 | Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in August 2026? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.64 |
| 08-22 15:37 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.46 |
| 08-20 21:14 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $2.57 |
| 08-19 15:42 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $0.07 |
| 07-29 14:38 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.111 | $11.10 |
| 07-24 15:24 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.0047641483 | $9.61 |
| 07-09 23:54 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $3.70 |
| 07-08 01:43 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.215 | $84.06 |
| 07-07 16:13 | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.48 |
| 07-06 10:09 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $2.32 |