kmeza
0xd402340f9f8cad6cc2bd979312365f70bfb77a38
- Realised P&L
- $10.51
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $63.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be between 1,300,000 and 1,400,000? · No | 0.610 | 0.585 | $37.87 | −$1.62 |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement? · No | 0.680 | 0.680 | $25.62 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.38at 0.610Cavaliers vs. Warriors
- +$4.90at 0.998Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?
- +$3.86at 0.884Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?
- +$2.97at 0.560Vikings vs. Seahawks
- +$0.84at 0.960Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 20:47 | Will Brett Smiley be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence? | BUY | 0.88 | $29.37 |
| 01-31 13:34 | Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.27 |
| 01-30 15:35 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.78 |
| 01-30 13:28 | Will Solana reach $150 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 01-30 13:24 | Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.86 |
| 01-30 12:07 | Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.34 |
| 12-30 13:04 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $14.51 |
| 12-29 20:15 | Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.30 |
| 12-29 20:07 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.996999991 | $43.05 |
| 10-30 23:39 | Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $16.69 |
| 10-30 21:26 | Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $16.15 |
| 10-30 20:06 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.12 |
| 09-29 11:12 | Lisa Cook arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.996999983 | $13.49 |
| 09-29 02:01 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? | BUY | 0.9979999727 | $11.40 |
| 09-29 01:28 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $15.48 |