PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Tugsbank2

0xd401510ac5859229af76aa19fca329fc7ae53fa5

Realised P&L
$-136.55
Volume
$5.2k
Markets traded
166
Open portfolio
$90.40

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded166
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration84.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 4? · Yes0.9600.979$76.36+$1.48
Will it rain in Miami, FL on October 4? · No0.8700.900$9.01+$0.30
Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 5? · No0.1900.490$4.90+$3.00
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 4? · No0.1040.026$0.13−$0.39
Will it rain in New York, NY on September 25? · No0.4700.000$0.00−$9.40
Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on September 14? · Yes0.5320.000$0.00−$66.31
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on September 11? · Yes0.9760.000$0.00−$25.39
Will it rain in Denver, CO on September 28? · Yes0.8100.000$0.00−$8.91
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET · Up0.2900.000$0.00−$1.00
Will it rain in Washington, DC on September 10? · Yes0.5500.000$0.00−$7.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET · Down0.1500.000$0.00−$0.75
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET · Down0.2700.000$0.00−$1.00
Will it rain in Boston, MA on September 10? · No0.4700.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? · Yes0.4900.000$0.00−$2.45
Will Trump say "Cut rate" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? · Yes0.2200.000$0.00−$1.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-05 04:26Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 5?SELL0.47$2.35
10-05 04:06Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 5?BUY0.54$2.70
10-05 00:37Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 5?SELL0.27$2.70
10-05 00:28Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 4?BUY0.96$17.28
10-05 00:27Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 4?BUY0.96$19.20
10-05 00:26Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 5?BUY0.19$3.80
10-05 00:26Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 4?BUY0.96$19.20
10-05 00:25Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 4?BUY0.96$19.20
10-04 23:59Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 5?SELL0.61$4.88
10-04 23:56Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on October 5?SELL0.61$7.32
10-04 19:55Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 4?SELL0.2466666667$4.44
10-04 19:23Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 4?BUY0.24$1.20
10-04 18:21Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 5?SELL0.943$18.86
10-04 18:20Will it rain in Boston, MA on October 5?SELL0.943$18.86
10-04 17:40Will it rain in Miami, FL on October 4?BUY0.87$8.70