lagerskoy
0xd3fe05d0229fe34dca2affb6d0c8b5870f43a403
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $39.6k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $452.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.040 | $199.90 | −$1.3k |
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.055 | $137.50 | −$362.50 |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.115 | $115.00 | −$385.00 |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? · No | 0.065 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$65.00 |
| Will Team Spirit win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$591.12at 0.337Over $100M committed to the Avici Raise on MetaDAO?
- +$443.99at 0.350Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO?
- +$192.00at 0.170Over $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO?
- +$74.40at 0.291Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?
- +$50.00at 0.940Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-25 17:04 | Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.954 | $685.25 |
| 11-25 11:30 | US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27? | SELL | 0.07 | $2.52 |
| 11-16 11:15 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner | SELL | 0.24 | $24.00 |
| 11-11 13:13 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 10-30 15:32 | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) | SELL | 0.99 | $106.08 |
| 10-30 13:00 | Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | SELL | 0.99 | $989.99 |
| 10-29 20:55 | Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | SELL | 0.68 | $476.00 |
| 10-29 12:34 | Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | BUY | 0.66 | $198.00 |
| 10-24 14:19 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | BUY | 0.618 | $123.60 |
| 10-24 12:58 | Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in October 2025? | SELL | 0.1 | $4.13 |
| 10-24 12:57 | Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in October 2025? | SELL | 0.17 | $51.81 |
| 10-24 12:57 | Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in October 2025? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 10-23 15:09 | Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.16 | $96.71 |
| 10-23 15:07 | Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.1701247474 | $68.19 |
| 10-23 13:14 | Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.13 | $146.74 |