0xd3d39dfbe82e6291333827e640dce1cd676996ff
- Realised P&L
- $-8.16
- Volume
- $82.87
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $2.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.850 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.400 | 0.300 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $162 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.225 | $0.38 | −$0.62 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · No | 0.330 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.70at 0.270Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
- +$1.04at 0.490US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
- +$0.87at 0.540Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of August 24 2026?
- +$0.83at 0.550Will Trump say "Save America Act" during RNC Convention?
- +$0.80at 0.560Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 02:04 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 05:17 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $162 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 21:16 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 07:39 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 22:34 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 13:52 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 05:51 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 16:28 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on September 8? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 06:45 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 10:50 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 15:18 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on September 2? | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 13:58 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 2? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 01:27 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on September 2? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 09-01 10:00 | Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.7089999121 | $1.00 |
| 08-29 13:18 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $192 in August? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |