Topgainer
0xd3bfdff0be857d9aeb6fa3bd01dc1bd694c7cc4c
- Realised P&L
- $-258.53
- Volume
- $65.0k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $28.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.835 | $10.85 | +$0.58 |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? · No | 0.920 | 0.801 | $8.02 | −$1.19 |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.215 | $5.16 | −$0.12 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? · No | 0.230 | 0.177 | $4.44 | −$1.31 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.00at 0.250US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$9.60at 0.320Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?
- +$4.78at 0.510Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$4.19at 0.130Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
- +$3.33at 0.750Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 07:08 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $4.18 |
| 09-24 07:08 | Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 09-22 08:55 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 09-22 05:02 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $10.26 |
| 09-21 08:39 | Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.005666889 | $0.17 |
| 09-20 23:50 | Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.06 | $4.92 |
| 09-20 23:21 | Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.0749107468 | $9.87 |
| 09-20 23:18 | Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.0620386004 | $30.59 |
| 09-20 23:12 | Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.04 | $3.72 |
| 09-20 22:15 | Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.33 | $9.90 |
| 09-20 21:58 | Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.049 | $2.87 |
| 09-20 21:35 | Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.01234 | $0.74 |
| 09-20 20:05 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | SELL | 0.3060932984 | $90.03 |
| 09-19 09:29 | Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.125 | $7.50 |
| 09-19 09:10 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.3399999989 | $100.00 |