CayciEray
0xd3b0197f09814155cedc13500c6ffcf248dddcc1
- Realised P&L
- $20.34
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $56.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.925 | $37.00 | −$0.20 |
| Türkiye vs. France: France O/U 0.5 · Over | 0.940 | 1.000 | $19.99 | +$1.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.20at 0.660Open Sud de France: Moise Kouame vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
- +$5.60at 0.720LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs
- +$5.20at 0.740Open Sud de France: Ugo Humbert vs Botic van de Zandschulp
- +$4.50at 0.820Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?
- +$4.16at 0.948US forces enter Iran by March 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 14:19 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $37.20 |
| 09-25 14:17 | Türkiye vs. France: France O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.94 | $18.79 |
| 08-26 19:53 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | SELL | 0.86 | $34.40 |
| 07-15 14:07 | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.3574999895 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 14:32 | Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.75 | $7.39 |
| 04-07 14:31 | Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | BUY | 0.67 | $3.35 |
| 04-07 14:30 | Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | BUY | 0.84 | $8.40 |
| 04-07 14:30 | Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.9 | $8.95 |
| 04-07 14:29 | Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 03-26 15:17 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | BUY | 0.77 | $7.70 |
| 03-26 15:17 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | BUY | 0.77 | $7.70 |
| 03-25 12:56 | Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $8.90 |
| 03-24 18:16 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | BUY | 0.375 | $1.88 |
| 03-24 18:12 | Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | BUY | 0.599 | $5.99 |
| 03-24 18:12 | Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.00 |