PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

timberfox

0xd3ae24a39cf21417de88b79ed72b6d28a6385b63

Realised P&L
$5.1k
Volume
$67.3k
Markets traded
47
Open portfolio
$194.80

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar7.6%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded47
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample14 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? · Yes0.2510.130$65.00$60.25
Iran nuclear test before 2027? · Yes0.0750.050$64.00$32.70
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31? · Yes0.1000.029$34.80$85.12
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026? · Yes0.1270.010$20.40$239.60
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31? · Yes0.1300.011$5.50$59.50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? · No0.0040.001$2.00$15.99
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · No0.2440.002$1.20$193.70
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? · No0.0460.001$0.70$64.53
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$120.00
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? · Yes0.0240.000$0.00$20.00
Iran full airspace closure by July 24? · Yes0.0940.000$0.00$84.68
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? · Yes0.1300.000$0.00$70.00
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1120.000$0.00$39.20
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00$100.00
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? · Yes0.0340.000$0.00$25.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 20:04Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?BUY0.29$87.00
08-01 19:30Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?BUY0.0278350195$22.75
08-01 12:51Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?BUY0.2158$107.90
08-01 12:44Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?BUY0.08$40.00
07-31 21:51Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.004497055$17.99
07-31 21:33Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?BUY0.2504040486$123.95
07-23 08:11Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?BUY0.139826087$64.32
07-23 08:10Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?BUY0.1289389706$87.68
07-23 08:10Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?BUY0.12$108.00
07-23 08:08Iran full airspace closure by July 24?BUY0.0940864444$84.68
07-23 08:08Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?BUY0.13$65.00
07-23 08:07Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?BUY0.0999333333$119.92
07-23 08:04Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?BUY0.09$9.00
06-21 07:02Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026?BUY0.0138526797$15.33
06-14 20:36Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?BUY0.32$96.00