timberfox
0xd3ae24a39cf21417de88b79ed72b6d28a6385b63
- Realised P&L
- $5.1k
- Volume
- $67.3k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $194.80
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.046Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
- +$898.65at 0.082Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
- +$600.60at 0.250US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$589.23at 0.185US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$569.45at 0.180Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 20:04 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.29 | $87.00 |
| 08-01 19:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.0278350195 | $22.75 |
| 08-01 12:51 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.2158 | $107.90 |
| 08-01 12:44 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.08 | $40.00 |
| 07-31 21:51 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.004497055 | $17.99 |
| 07-31 21:33 | Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? | BUY | 0.2504040486 | $123.95 |
| 07-23 08:11 | Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.139826087 | $64.32 |
| 07-23 08:10 | Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1289389706 | $87.68 |
| 07-23 08:10 | Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $108.00 |
| 07-23 08:08 | Iran full airspace closure by July 24? | BUY | 0.0940864444 | $84.68 |
| 07-23 08:08 | Israel military action against Yemen by July 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $65.00 |
| 07-23 08:07 | Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31? | BUY | 0.0999333333 | $119.92 |
| 07-23 08:04 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $9.00 |
| 06-21 07:02 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0138526797 | $15.33 |
| 06-14 20:36 | Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? | BUY | 0.32 | $96.00 |