GoingGangrene
0xd34f2b5e9ee02bed8a107fdf9bda2d866dc61c95
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $947.9k
- Markets traded
- 477
- Open portfolio
- $4.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded477
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.923 | 0.957 | $4.2k | +$148.51 |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 15? · No | 0.958 | 0.970 | $299.73 | +$3.64 |
| Will Houthis target Syria by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.923 | 0.960 | $102.81 | +$3.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.489Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.896US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$717.12at 0.880US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$663.82at 0.883Knicks vs. Spurs
- +$635.32at 0.897Thunder vs. Lakers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 17:44 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.991 | $19.82 |
| 10-16 11:11 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.4k |
| 10-15 16:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.994 | $941.17 |
| 10-15 16:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.4k |
| 10-15 16:16 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.995 | $99.47 |
| 10-13 18:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.972 | $16.52 |
| 10-13 18:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.971 | $116.52 |
| 10-13 18:29 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.971 | $97.10 |
| 10-13 18:29 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.969 | $35.85 |
| 10-12 19:35 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.996 | $498.00 |
| 10-12 19:35 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.995 | $286.94 |
| 10-12 18:27 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.993 | $250.51 |
| 10-12 18:24 | Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 15? | BUY | 0.9508256131 | $27.92 |
| 10-12 16:33 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.995 | $482.70 |
| 10-12 16:33 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.994 | $147.03 |