Natalied
0xd33cc97ec139031f2502a8b692e91e2a1cc2924e
- Realised P&L
- $21.05
- Volume
- $16.1k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $94.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Texas State (-14.5) · Colorado State | 0.530 | 0.525 | $77.17 | −$0.73 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,200 October 12-18? · No | 0.996 | 0.997 | $17.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.54 |
| Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.19 |
| Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-08-17? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.81 |
| Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs · BIG | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$410.85at 0.500Will Crin Antonescu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?
- +$263.89at 0.500Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$259.91at 0.500Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$28.86at 0.467Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A
- +$27.34at 0.500Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 02:15 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.998 | $528.94 |
| 10-14 02:15 | Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.998 | $17.51 |
| 10-14 02:15 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.53 |
| 10-14 02:15 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.52 |
| 10-14 02:14 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $520.96 |
| 10-14 02:13 | Will Ethereum reach $3,200 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.996 | $7.00 |
| 10-14 02:13 | Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.998 | $533.93 |
| 10-14 02:12 | Will Ethereum reach $3,200 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.996 | $10.00 |
| 10-14 02:12 | Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.999 | $552.00 |
| 10-13 03:03 | Spread: Texas State (-14.5) | BUY | 0.53 | $77.91 |
| 09-22 12:09 | Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 44.5 | BUY | 0.5 | $18.50 |
| 09-10 11:56 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.53 | $25.44 |
| 09-03 07:06 | Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Qualifier Playoffs | BUY | 0.59 | $20.06 |
| 08-13 12:03 | Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-08-17? | BUY | 0.41 | $16.81 |
| 08-04 11:49 | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.998 | $41.96 |