sktt1
0xd2dc9d98becc84776c6f6309e35d6012f09d254c
- Realised P&L
- $76.76
- Volume
- $125.0k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $144.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $122.49 | −$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.995 | 0.995 | $21.88 | −$0.01 |
| Megaquake by March 31? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.50at 0.270Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$18.42at 0.972Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
- +$9.47at 0.165Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$8.00at 0.080Will Biden finish his term?
- +$5.73at 0.952Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 02:10 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $122.55 |
| 09-30 02:09 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $21.89 |
| 08-23 01:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? | BUY | 0.983 | $141.97 |
| 07-25 07:08 | Megaquake by July 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $89.25 |
| 06-30 13:32 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by July 31? | BUY | 0.9958005584 | $49.93 |
| 06-30 13:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 29-July 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $56.45 |
| 06-30 13:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 29-July 5? | BUY | 0.998 | $32.77 |
| 05-19 04:57 | Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | BUY | 0.991 | $137.94 |
| 04-24 03:03 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $137.80 |
| 03-18 06:16 | Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 02-25 14:28 | Will Gemini be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.99 | $37.11 |
| 02-25 05:47 | Will Tether be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.993 | $99.30 |
| 01-26 12:32 | Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? | BUY | 0.997 | $32.07 |
| 01-25 13:49 | Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January? | BUY | 0.998 | $104.03 |
| 12-23 12:35 | Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.76 |