0xd2d65f511b1f4170625539803907587803595804
- Realised P&L
- $0.21
- Volume
- $14.21
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $2.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.645 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.530 | 0.470 | $0.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.115 | $0.32 | −$0.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.94at 0.522Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?
- +$0.50at 0.671Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$0.37at 0.730Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?
- +$0.24at 0.806Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $189 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$-1.03at 0.502Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 19:07 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 10:56 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 02:28 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 23:45 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 15:44 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 07:42 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $189 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 23:15 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 15:11 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |