0xd2c18abDABF4601F22521BedD16425C474557C9A-1733989337516
0xd2c18abdabf4601f22521bedd16425c474557c9a
- Realised P&L
- $-45.41
- Volume
- $8.9k
- Markets traded
- 144
- Open portfolio
- $32.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded144
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.670 | $18.81 | −$9.19 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 8? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $13.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.54at 0.826Ethereum all time high in 2024?
- +$0.50at 0.992Will BYU win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?
- +$0.40at 0.991Will Felicity Jones win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
- +$0.18at 0.994Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 28-October 4?
- +$0.18at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 17:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.00 |
| 10-06 19:02 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $28.00 |
| 10-05 07:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 6? | BUY | 0.9979999857 | $35.80 |
| 10-02 20:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.9939999754 | $32.20 |
| 09-27 04:13 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.997 | $12.00 |
| 09-27 01:04 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.996 | $37.70 |
| 09-24 05:31 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $26.00 |
| 09-20 04:54 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.9944729288 | $19.00 |
| 09-18 03:36 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999606 | $25.20 |
| 09-14 10:37 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 15? | BUY | 0.9929999998 | $14.00 |
| 09-12 03:20 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.00 |
| 09-07 06:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 8? | BUY | 0.996 | $23.60 |
| 09-03 15:24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 4? | BUY | 0.9969999681 | $17.00 |
| 09-02 12:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 3? | BUY | 0.997 | $25.10 |
| 08-26 07:58 | Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $22.50 |