EverythingAlwaysHappens
0xd2b9591605be8fadc6caa8d43a3209e503190a94
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $127.9k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.984 | 0.968 | $3.1k | −$52.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$333.88at 0.930Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?
- +$284.60at 0.740Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14?
- +$239.50at 0.707Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?
- +$143.16at 0.960Boxing: Will Canelo vs. Crawford end in a Draw?
- +$140.64at 0.950US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 08:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $895.00 |
| 07-21 02:17 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $746.37 |
| 07-02 04:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.8699999999 | $650.00 |
| 07-02 03:32 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.9837352681 | $3.2k |
| 06-27 01:30 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.009 | $11.63 |
| 06-25 08:35 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.2k |
| 05-25 12:28 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $450.00 |
| 05-21 08:59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $598.49 |
| 04-17 23:25 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.339999999 | $143.58 |
| 04-10 05:31 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY | 0.9816805071 | $2.9k |
| 04-10 05:29 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | BUY | 0.689999999 | $98.14 |
| 04-10 05:25 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.69 | $600.00 |
| 04-05 05:09 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.0k |
| 03-19 23:46 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.98775129 | $567.13 |
| 03-19 23:45 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | BUY | 0.9896560668 | $1000.00 |