breadNeglect
0xd2994555aa95c0b0454c20fb69199e686c6bb988
- Realised P&L
- $-102.87
- Volume
- $62.7k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $8.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.902 | 0.993 | $3.97 | +$0.36 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · No | 0.909 | 0.912 | $1.82 | +$0.01 |
| Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? · Yes | 0.096 | 0.016 | $1.38 | −$6.88 |
| Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? · No | 0.929 | 0.996 | $1.00 | +$0.07 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.06 |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.41at 0.670Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)
- +$7.54at 0.041Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup?
- +$4.24at 0.958Will Carlos Eduardo Palenque win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
- +$2.75at 0.022Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$2.19at 0.064Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 14:52 | Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? | BUY | 0.9 | $13.50 |
| 06-14 12:09 | Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) | BUY | 0.91 | $12.74 |
| 05-30 07:22 | CD Garcilaso vs. ADC Juan Pablo II College: O/U 5.5 | BUY | 0.94 | $14.10 |
| 05-21 06:42 | Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? | BUY | 0.93 | $15.81 |
| 05-10 06:36 | Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-05-10? | BUY | 0.94 | $17.86 |
| 03-17 13:38 | Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | SELL | 0.09 | $3.51 |
| 03-17 13:32 | Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | SELL | 0.104 | $75.92 |
| 03-17 11:43 | Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election? | SELL | 0.8896 | $22.24 |
| 03-17 11:33 | Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election? | BUY | 0.894 | $741.13 |
| 03-17 11:26 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.061 | $81.56 |
| 03-17 11:16 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.062 | $82.89 |
| 03-17 11:09 | Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | SELL | 0.944 | $785.41 |
| 03-17 10:46 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.054 | $27.92 |
| 03-17 10:30 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.909 | $245.43 |
| 03-17 10:24 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.082 | $49.77 |