0xd253f083e57bfe95b2c7b6004bd1cb87dcd1a65e
- Realised P&L
- $-4.31
- Volume
- $44.00
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $7.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.680 | 1.000 | $1.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $181 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.865 | $1.42 | +$0.42 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.328 | $1.31 | +$0.31 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $517.50 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.930 | $1.29 | +$0.29 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.805 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.240 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.071 | $0.22 | −$0.78 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.021 | $0.09 | −$0.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.04at 0.490US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
- +$0.94at 0.520Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$0.48at 0.679Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?
- +$0.46at 0.689Will Trump say "Radical Left" during RNC Convention?
- +$0.42at 0.708Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of September 14 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 23:13 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $181 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 02:03 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 18:03 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 09:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:13 | Will Warsh say "Gas" or "Gasoline" or "Natural Gas" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 17:12 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 08:08 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 22:08 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.10 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 14:02 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $517.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 05:55 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 21:53 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $117.50 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 15:20 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 01:21 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 17:20 | Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 08:09 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $172 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |