lilgato
0xd2494ceb6dad8cf772e550b2bd327c4fbe3210da
- Realised P&L
- $2.1k
- Volume
- $96.0k
- Markets traded
- 154
- Open portfolio
- $9.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded154
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$218.73at 0.997US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$191.71at 0.885Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$111.64at 0.963Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
- +$100.00at 0.796Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$99.06at 0.796Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 12:48 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.976 | $145.69 |
| 09-16 11:30 | Will Rodina win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.848 | $152.64 |
| 09-15 13:54 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY | 0.92 | $101.20 |
| 09-15 13:28 | Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $66.29 |
| 09-15 13:26 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $21.84 |
| 09-15 12:59 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $282.00 |
| 09-15 12:42 | Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.95 | $8.60 |
| 09-14 17:46 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.991 | $44.59 |
| 09-14 17:45 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.991 | $178.38 |
| 09-14 11:16 | Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $65.51 |
| 09-14 11:16 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $18.48 |
| 09-13 08:32 | Will United Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections? | BUY | 0.946 | $236.50 |
| 09-11 00:26 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | SELL | 0.7433333333 | $22.30 |
| 09-08 18:04 | Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $262.69 |
| 09-08 17:40 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.65 | $9.75 |