Traingman
0xd2178baff3b409cdd9eabfc9e6e4dee000a07561
- Realised P&L
- $-8.1k
- Volume
- $878.3k
- Markets traded
- 6,571
- Open portfolio
- $786.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,571
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 13? · Yes | 0.886 | 0.920 | $786.78 | +$28.83 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 4? · No | 0.803 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$152.82 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on September 13? · No | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$445.47 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 15? · Yes | 0.856 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$594.72 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 13? · No | 0.939 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$856.25 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 22? · Yes | 0.914 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$208.55 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 17? · Yes | 0.857 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$587.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$773.25at 0.424Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?
- +$274.57at 0.737Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 2?
- +$269.82at 0.870Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 7?
- +$250.74at 0.898Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28?
- +$224.47at 0.753Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 08:02 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.9367789761 | $330.00 |
| 10-13 05:55 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.850917974 | $427.95 |
| 10-13 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.978 | $25.79 |
| 10-13 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.98 | $44.10 |
| 10-13 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.98 | $254.95 |
| 10-12 07:05 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.9066199901 | $268.23 |
| 10-12 06:27 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.867034525 | $400.00 |
| 10-12 03:15 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.98 | $91.14 |
| 10-12 03:13 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.97 | $33.69 |
| 10-12 03:09 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.96 | $104.18 |
| 10-12 03:00 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.9483870968 | $29.40 |
| 10-12 02:55 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.75 |
| 10-12 02:55 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.94 | $4.69 |
| 10-12 02:55 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.9581906375 | $305.00 |
| 10-12 02:54 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |