RDaneelBoris
0xd2056c6a91e35ea729cd7ba6599d0e2679de93a7
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $41.7k
- Markets traded
- 556
- Open portfolio
- $522.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded556
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.699 | 0.265 | $522.98 | −$856.42 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.416 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$799.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$53.05at 0.284Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
- +$29.32at 0.636Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
- +$26.86at 0.656Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
- +$24.57at 0.676Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
- +$23.19at 0.812Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 15:48 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999999 | $373.47 |
| 09-11 15:48 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999986 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 15:47 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4238594582 | $299.96 |
| 09-11 15:47 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999994 | $300.00 |
| 09-11 15:46 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.40951677 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 15:45 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999984 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 15:45 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4018819828 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 15:45 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3992015968 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 15:42 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $705.94 |
| 09-11 15:38 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0344054233 | $112.90 |
| 09-05 12:15 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2216698562 | $727.39 |
| 09-05 12:13 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.1327225647 | $781.39 |
| 09-04 00:50 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.2461922584 | $1.4k |
| 06-08 01:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET | BUY | 0.8099999977 | $50.00 |
| 06-08 01:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.8699999988 | $50.00 |