francesmora
0xd1d9288fa72bb818c94543e160ba7fe09849fcec
- Realised P&L
- $6.73
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $32.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 28? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.865 | $32.37 | +$3.93 |
| Hangzhou Open: Jaime Faria vs Terence Atmane · Terence Atmane | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.36at 0.580Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?
- +$16.58at 0.610Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 14?
- +$12.49at 0.460Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?
- +$7.63at 0.845Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa?
- +$2.46at 0.870Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:27 | Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.99 |
| 01-30 16:04 | Will Chainlink hit $15 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.22 |
| 01-30 15:36 | Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.92 |
| 01-30 14:56 | Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.19 |
| 01-30 13:15 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $27.59 |
| 12-30 13:45 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.82 |
| 12-30 00:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.995999978 | $17.22 |
| 12-29 23:46 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999223 | $10.28 |
| 12-29 19:41 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999784 | $33.25 |
| 10-31 00:36 | Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.48 |
| 10-30 23:25 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $16.59 |
| 10-30 20:31 | Will Solana dip to $120 in October? | BUY | 0.9989999647 | $13.51 |
| 10-08 09:16 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | SELL | 0.821 | $15.27 |
| 09-29 10:36 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999957 | $16.37 |
| 09-29 09:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? | BUY | 0.9979999398 | $10.57 |