Machine25
0xd1b2b3d9fd6e5410d23a1a656eadab7411c1c5d3
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $24.2k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $69.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.560 | $44.80 | +$0.00 |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.470 | $24.91 | −$0.53 |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.08 |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? · Yes | 0.652 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$156.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$220.25at 0.556Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
- +$107.72at 0.230Will Russia capture Yablunivka before July?
- +$31.83at 0.940Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday?
- +$26.09at 0.348Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?
- +$18.03at 0.850Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 09:17 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.48 | $25.44 |
| 10-30 09:14 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | SELL | 0.89 | $17.80 |
| 10-26 04:08 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 10-10 12:47 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10? | SELL | 0.21 | $3.15 |
| 08-26 13:45 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.74 | $7.40 |
| 08-26 13:43 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $8.60 |
| 08-26 13:43 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9879999992 | $10.00 |
| 12-25 15:13 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15? | BUY | 0.91 | $23.41 |
| 12-25 15:13 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31? | SELL | 0.1 | $23.41 |
| 12-20 21:03 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31? | BUY | 0.31 | $44.73 |
| 12-20 20:46 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $26.95 |
| 12-20 20:46 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? | SELL | 0.2161210276 | $71.68 |
| 12-20 09:34 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? | SELL | 0.1651545662 | $130.57 |
| 12-20 08:39 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? | BUY | 0.8799999831 | $2.08 |
| 12-20 08:39 | Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition | SELL | 0.986 | $2.08 |