0xD16549D30E89329487178D4346E7d448aF3df2b8-1769754237810
0xd16549d30e89329487178d4346e7d448af3df2b8
- Realised P&L
- $10.6k
- Volume
- $365.2k
- Markets traded
- 171
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded171
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.734US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$1.6kat 0.912Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
- +$1.2kat 0.870JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
- +$1.0kat 0.955US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
- +$830.25at 0.960 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 18:39 | Will England win on 2026-09-29? | BUY | 0.75 | $300.00 |
| 09-29 18:37 | China Open: Roman Safiullin vs Flavio Cobolli | BUY | 0.5499999995 | $100.00 |
| 09-29 18:36 | China Open: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic | BUY | 0.6899999995 | $300.00 |
| 09-29 18:36 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | BUY | 0.8 | $400.00 |
| 09-29 18:34 | China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta | BUY | 0.806391278 | $2.0k |
| 06-20 18:15 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $19.9k |
| 06-20 15:23 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.8199999999 | $500.00 |
| 06-20 15:22 | Will France win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.9099999999 | $1000.00 |
| 06-20 15:22 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.8899999995 | $1000.00 |
| 06-20 15:22 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.66 | $100.00 |
| 06-20 15:20 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.9002621267 | $2.7k |
| 06-20 15:18 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.9001304896 | $4.3k |
| 06-20 15:15 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.9195233411 | $1.6k |
| 06-20 15:14 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.9245866024 | $1.3k |
| 06-18 14:46 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.88 | $1000.00 |