0f7l492ysa4r3
0xd15d58a6192adef0768fbb01976a5a52bbf17832
- Realised P&L
- $848.89
- Volume
- $79.4k
- Markets traded
- 259
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded259
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$399.56at 0.512Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
- +$78.16at 0.004Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
- +$67.29at 0.012Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- +$41.10at 0.315Lula participates in debate before first round?
- +$36.21at 0.301Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:05 | Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | SELL | 0.177 | $12.64 |
| 09-17 19:03 | Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | SELL | 0.18 | $5.06 |
| 09-17 18:59 | Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election? | BUY | 0.6500654206 | $139.11 |
| 09-17 18:48 | Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.85 |
| 09-17 18:37 | Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.408 | $5.96 |
| 09-17 18:36 | Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.416 | $16.64 |
| 09-17 18:31 | Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.3801516077 | $44.81 |
| 09-17 06:16 | Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.1105294856 | $14.09 |
| 09-16 21:40 | Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.21 |
| 09-16 21:40 | Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.055 | $3.49 |
| 09-12 21:15 | Will Mauro Mendes win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election? | BUY | 0.308 | $7.70 |
| 09-11 23:40 | Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in September? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.35 |
| 09-10 01:02 | Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | SELL | 0.43 | $40.19 |
| 09-10 00:50 | Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | SELL | 0.4480604723 | $113.66 |
| 09-10 00:08 | Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | SELL | 0.4693601682 | $62.50 |