0xD158Ed5118d214B1649493894D9afFAA9b737CC4-1766964724510
0xd158ed5118d214b1649493894d9affaa9b737cc4
- Realised P&L
- $-42.87
- Volume
- $9.0k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $20.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.105 | $13.19 | +$3.19 |
| EU dissolves before 2027? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.015 | $5.08 | −$11.03 |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.018 | $1.75 | −$4.25 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Ilhan Omar be charged with fraud? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.50 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 10? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Maduro mugshot released by Monday? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.10at 0.080US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$6.34at 0.030Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?
- +$3.77at 0.140Epstein client list released by June 30?
- +$3.00at 0.090Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026
- +$2.00at 0.080Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-07 17:50 | Epstein client list released by June 30? | SELL | 0.215342 | $10.77 |
| 01-11 22:27 | EU dissolves before 2027? | BUY | 0.046 | $10.21 |
| 01-11 17:04 | EU dissolves before 2027? | SELL | 0.0444149793 | $8.88 |
| 01-10 09:53 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.025 | $2.00 |
| 01-10 09:45 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 10? | BUY | 0.0168316668 | $1.00 |
| 01-10 09:37 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 01-10 00:41 | Epstein client list released by June 30? | BUY | 0.14 | $7.00 |
| 01-10 00:33 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.0401491793 | $6.92 |
| 01-09 16:43 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 01-09 16:38 | Will Ilhan Omar be charged with fraud? | BUY | 0.0439999945 | $7.50 |
| 01-09 16:37 | Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? | SELL | 0.0511457333 | $15.34 |
| 01-09 16:20 | Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0694374058 | $5.00 |
| 01-09 16:20 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.029 | $5.00 |
| 01-08 21:13 | Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to no prison time? | SELL | 0.0665674793 | $6.53 |
| 01-08 20:31 | Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.0509999907 | $5.00 |