0xd14a56a61d6421164da4621f40977d7b4a01bdc7
0xd14a56a61d6421164da4621f40977d7b4a01bdc7
- Realised P&L
- $-78.23
- Volume
- $7.8k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $170.55
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.835 | $132.86 | +$2.39 |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Yes | 0.177 | 0.112 | $16.56 | −$9.64 |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.030 | $15.40 | −$28.32 |
| Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.025 | $5.74 | +$1.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$104.71at 0.165Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$70.40at 0.564Spain snap election called in 2026?
- +$27.77at 0.710Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
- +$7.75at 0.366Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
- +$-2.98at 0.018Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 14:35 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.1771577611 | $26.20 |
| 10-06 12:54 | Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.8199999994 | $130.47 |
| 10-06 12:54 | Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.0169777333 | $3.82 |
| 10-06 12:52 | Spain snap election called in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $163.77 |
| 07-25 23:09 | La Velada del Año 6: Plex vs. Fernanfloo | BUY | 0.1592803195 | $120.18 |
| 07-18 09:47 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.00 |
| 06-19 05:23 | Spain snap election called in 2026? | BUY | 0.5513044896 | $90.47 |
| 06-18 12:13 | Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0213890569 | $1.56 |
| 06-14 00:07 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.077 | $91.21 |
| 06-14 00:07 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.013 | $7.69 |
| 06-12 04:07 | Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6762252858 | $49.19 |
| 06-12 04:05 | José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? | BUY | 0.086612369 | $43.72 |
| 06-10 18:48 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.699999999 | $66.98 |
| 06-10 18:47 | Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? | SELL | 0.4221556326 | $69.44 |
| 06-09 17:17 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0839999993 | $99.50 |