jont420
0xd147b2afa2c72d006da01409e5ceaec42cd7c2e8
- Realised P&L
- $-20.43
- Volume
- $484.87
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $2.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.017 | $1.65 | −$8.35 |
| Will National Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.011 | $0.49 | −$19.51 |
| Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + NZF? · Yes | 0.241 | 0.001 | $0.04 | −$19.96 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-10.15at 0.401Christopher Luxon out by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 08:28 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.10 |
| 07-06 08:51 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 07-06 08:46 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0479999955 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 19:38 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + NZF? | BUY | 0.2412979072 | $20.00 |
| 05-03 23:46 | Will National Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | BUY | 0.4699999929 | $20.00 |
| 05-03 23:02 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | BUY | 0.3913632616 | $10.00 |