0xd13658f9fad49653a5354796c3d7d2e4418bd811
- Realised P&L
- $1.27
- Volume
- $361.21
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $80.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.560 | 0.815 | $14.10 | +$4.41 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.997 | $13.29 | +$3.29 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.895 | $11.93 | +$1.93 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.620 | $11.48 | +$1.48 |
| Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.605 | $10.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July? · No | 0.750 | 0.746 | $9.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.415 | $5.04 | −$4.68 |
| Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July? · Yes | 0.285 | 0.384 | $3.51 | +$0.90 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.024 | $1.12 | −$8.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.15at 0.660Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$3.44at 0.594Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$2.69at 0.790Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
- +$2.43at 0.800Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.95at 0.480Will Warsh say "Echo of History" during July Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:21 | Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.6 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 12:16 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 04:15 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 20:09 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999861 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 12:01 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999842 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 03:46 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5399999903 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 19:44 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 11:43 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July? | BUY | 0.2849999449 | $2.61 |
| 08-01 03:03 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $1.86 |
| 07-31 19:02 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $9.72 |
| 07-31 11:00 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-30 07:57 | Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6099999377 | $1.86 |
| 07-29 21:13 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-29 11:24 | Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6499997374 | $1.98 |
| 07-29 02:11 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |